Do you want to download Summary in Excel? In Step#2 Click On Summary Button then Click here
Introduction:
Advance COVID-19 Forecasting calculator is based on two simple steps. In step#1, end user selects three months and enter their projected COVID-19 patients’ numbers with breakup of Mild, Severe and Critical cases for each month.
In Step#2, end user can adjust formulas by entering No. of Doctors / Medics Per Patient, Shift for Doctors / Medics in 24 hours, No. of Nurses / Paramedics Per Patient, Shift for Nurses / Paramedics in 24 hours, and 1 vent caters - how many Patients for 30 days?
After entering projected number of COVID-19 patients and adjusting calculation parameters, end user can simply view and print specific month’s forecast quantities for PPEs, summary of three months for PPEs and forecast ventilators’ quantities.
Month Mild Severe Critical Total
18866 3195 1088 0
222309 37643 12820 0
2395236 405574 138130 0

Setting Parameters Mild Patients Severe Patients Critical Patients
No. of Doctors / Medics Per Patient 10 10 10
Shift for Doctors / Medics in 24 hours 4 4 4
No. of Nurses / Paramedics Per Patient 2 2 2
Shift for Nurses / Paramedics in 24 hours 10 10 10
1 vent caters, How many Patients for 30 days - - 2.6
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*References:
1. Hashikura M, Kizu J. 2009. Stockpile of personal protective equipment in hospital settings: preparedness for influenza pandemics. Am J Infect Control. 37:703-707. (https://www.ajicjournal.org/article/S0196-6553(09)00657-9/fulltext)
2. Naval Medical Research Unit 3 (NAMRU3) and USAID Egypt. 2011. Module 2: Principles of product selection and evaluation, stock planning of essential IC supplies. Program to Improve Quality and Safety of Healthcare in Egypt, Basic Infection Control Training Course (http://reprolineplus.org/system/files/resources/IPC_M11_Programs.pdf)

** Approximations:
1. 100 patients at one facility to change surgical mask 4 times a day
2. 5 hand senitizers / facility/day
3. 10 Biohazard bags/facility/day
4. 2 powered air-purifying respirators/facility
The above estimations has been based on CDC guidelines on "Estimated Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) Needed for Healthcare Facilities" https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/healthcare-us/ppe/calculator.html
Notes:
1. This is a living tool based on guidance available through international literature for forecasting of PPE's during differenct pandemics
2. Provsion for 40% to 60% buffer has been given catering for unexpected vast outbreak
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